Friday, February 5, 2010

CBO Warns of Never-Ending Budget Woes...

Just a few short days ago, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) became the first official D.C. source to open its bomb bay doors and let loose on all of us. The CBO's projections: Instead of falling substantially from $1.4 trillion in 2009 (9.9 percent of GDP), the 2010 deficit would essentially hold steady at $1.35 trillion (9.2 percent of GDP).

The massive 2010 deficit would be followed by another $980 billion deficit in 2011 ... $650 billion in 2012 ... and $539 billion in 2013. Total red ink through 2020: $7,400,000,000,000!

As stunning as those figures are, long-term projections usually UNDERESTIMATE the deficit. Roughly 80 percent of the four-year deficit forecasts issued in the past three decades ultimately proved too optimistic, according to The New York Times.

Politicians love spending what isn't theirs. Why? Those forecasts rely on growth, revenue, and spending projections that don't pass the test of time. Politicians just can't help themselves — pandering, over-borrowing, and overspending is in their nature.

Just consider this: Two years ago, the CBO forecast the 2010 deficit would be $241 billion. Now the CBO is throwing that projection out the window and saying it'll be more than FIVE AND A HALF TIMES AS BIG!

Obama Unleashes Carpet-Bombing Campaign of Red Ink ...
But if you thought the CBO numbers were bad, you should read through the Obama administration's latest budget. It forecasts a whopping $1.6 trillion deficit this year — more than $200 billion above and beyond the CBO's numbers. That would come to 10.6 percent of GDP, the worst in modern time.

What about 2011? Another $1.3 trillion. And the years after that? More of the same. The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is now expecting $8.5 trillion in red ink over the next decade, with the annual deficit NEVER falling below the 3 percent-of-GDP threshold considered fiscally responsible.

It gets worse ... Those projections assume relatively rosy growth — 3.8 percent next year, and more than 4 percent over the following three years. We've only seen a string of 4 percent+ growth readings twice in the past three decades. The projections also include assumptions about taxes and spending discipline that won't pass the test of time. One example: The OMB projects $250 billion in savings from a proposed three-year freeze on a significant chunk of domestic spending. Increases thereafter would be limited to the inflation rate.

I don't know about you, but I think the chance of that happening is somewhere between slim and none! Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have shown any real spending discipline. There's no reason to assume they'll have a "Eureka!" moment in the middle of the decade. And I'm not even getting into the Social Security- and Medicare-related problems. We've promised trillions in benefits over the coming years that also threaten to blow our nation's balance sheet to smithereens.

Debt, Debt, Debt. And Did I Mention Debt?
U.S. public debt is expected to double in 10 years. Bottom line: A never-ending wave of budget bombs is headed our way in the coming years. That will drive the total U.S. public debt load inexorably higher — from about $9.3 trillion in 2010 to $18.6 trillion by 2020. And the cost of servicing all that debt? It's projected to more than QUADRUPLE from $188 billion to $840 billion!

I'm at a loss for words, folks. These figures are horrendous ... outrageous ... infuriating ... and terrifying all in one.

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